Statistical tools
Exploring multi-state and competing-risks models
Choose a model structure, set the intensity of each transition, and watch state-occupancy probabilities, cumulative incidence and restricted mean time-in-state update live — the cohort dynamics implied by your transition hazards, built on the merlin family.
Export to avalon · merlin · pendragon
Run-validated: the emitted avalon msm reproduces the mechanism (simulated occupancy matches the analytic curve within Monte-Carlo error). The pendragon step fits one merlin model per transition and predicts occupancy / length of stay.
Red Door Analytics
Multi-state modelling for real studies
This explorer shows the cohort dynamics implied by a set of transition hazards. Fitting them to your data — competing risks, illness–death, semi-Markov clock-reset, and the health-economic outputs that follow — is what merlin and pendragon are for.
See also: Survival DGM explorer· Sample-size & power calculator· the merlin family· how we pre-specify an analysis →
Occupancy probabilities are computed by Aalen–Johansen product integration of the transition intensities (time-inhomogeneous Markov). For teaching and study-design illustration; validate any analysis in merlin / pendragon.